There’s a growing concern that Israel may bomb Iran without US support, and if that happens it could set the Middle East on fire. We’re already hearing a steady drumbeat for war from the right wing, particularly the GOP candidates. I agree that Iran shouldn’t have nuclear weapons, but neither should Israel, which practices a policy of Deliberate Ambiguity — that is, it neither confirms nor denies that it possesses nuclear weapons. If Iran really wants a nuclear capability, it’s probably because it believes Israel has one.
So far no one can say with absolute certainty that Iran’s goal is to put together a nuclear bomb, but if it does it would have to build at least two because it would have to test one to make sure it worked. But there’s a high probability that underground nuclear tests would be detected and verified by a combination of several available technologies. That would seem to be the logical time to put Iran in the crosshairs, to deploy a couple of carrier groups in the Persian Gulf and deploy AWACs and airborne anti-missile platforms. Attacking Iran preemptively might be jumping the gun a bit.
Iran must know that launching a nuclear-tipped missile at Israel would assure its destruction at the hands of the US and its allies. Iranian leaders can’t be that crazy, can they? It’s understandable that Israel would be on edge with a nuclear-armed Iran in the neighborhood, but does it have to live in fear? The US and the USSR waged a cold war for over 40 years, and life went on. Yes, Iran’s President Ahmadinejad threatened to annihilate Israel, but the Soviet Union’s Premier Khrushchev did threaten to bury the US. For the US and the USSR, Mutually Assured Destruction was a strategy that prevented war. So perhaps both Israel and Iran should be able to practice Deliberate Ambiguity, and play their own version of Mutually Assured Destruction. But for that to happen, Iran has to learn how to say “maybe.”
Liberal Buzz 